Where Is BTC in Its Cycle, and How Should Investors Think About the Next Step?

Over the past few weeks, global investors have fallen into a low emotional state after experiencing significant declines in both US stocks and even US bonds. The liquidity of Bitcoin has also notably weakened. However, as negative news gradually clears out and it appears that the bad news is running its course, market sentiment has recovered from extreme fear to a neutral level. So, where are we in the cycle now? Is the bull market still here? And how should investors think about the next step?

Among various indicators, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio (the MVRV ratio is a relative indicator, calculated by subtracting the “realized market cap” from the “circulating market cap” of Bitcoin and then normalizing it with the circulating market cap. This indicator provides insights into whether the current price is above or below its “fair value”) can serve as a useful indicator for cycle positioning. Historically, a high ratio (>3.5) indicates an overheated market, while a low ratio (<1) suggests an attractive accumulation zone.

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stands at 1.9. Combined with historical experience, this suggests that we are in a mid-cycle reset phase. Due to the influence of factors such as ETFs, SEC policies, and global macroeconomic trends, the BTC market may still experience short-term volatility. However, considering the current US government’s positive impact on the crypto market, the foundation for the large-scale adoption of BTC and its derivatives has been laid. Looking ahead, the medium- to long-term prospects remain optimistic.

As for investment advice in the crypto market, the renowned Eugene Ng Ah Sio (0xENAS) recently suggested the following: Do not become overly obsessed with short-term trading and leverage. The most important thing is to minimize the risk of bankruptcy and stay in the game. When opportunities arise, be bold in dreaming, but most importantly, always be aware of the risks. If the market affects your emotions and judgment, take a break. Until these investments generate cash for you, they are not real money. Do not let yourself fall into frenzy and high pressure.

Mining, as one of the most stable ways to invest in BTC, is recommended by BITMARS to miners. We suggest several ASICs with low shutdown prices and high cost-effectiveness, which can ensure that the majority of small and medium-sized miners still have relatively safe, or even good, returns.

The ANTMINER S21 series is the absolute king of energy efficiency ratios among BTC ASICs, and this brand’s machines are comprehensively strong and trusted by miners. Taking the ANTMINER S21 XP 270T  as an example, it currently mines about 0.0001539BTC per day, worth about $14. When the electricity price is 6 cents, the shutdown price is approximately $34,000.

The WHATSMINER M60/M50, on the other hand, has the advantage of maintaining good working conditions under extreme weather, with the WHATSMINER M60S  as a case in point. It has been proven that in the cold weather of North America or in the large diurnal temperature difference of the Middle East, this machine has a very low failure rate, which helps to reduce overall costs. Additionally, its hardware total cost is not high, and it currently mines about 0.00010602BTC per day, easy to payback. When the electricity price is 6 cents, the shutdown price is approximately $47,000. For miners in the Middle East with electricity subsidies, if the electricity cost is controlled at 2 cents, the shutdown price can be as low as $15,700.

Welcome to consult our sellers for the most suitable BTC ASIC and trading methods for you! We have warehouses in HK, US, Dubai, and Moscow, with a large inventory of spot/futures from brands such as ANTMINER/WHATSMINER available for shipping from multiple countries and can assist with customs declarations at the delivery location.

Finally, BITMARS would like to remind everyone that all investments carry risks, so decisions should be made cautiously.

BITMARS is an internationally renowned crypto miner trading company. We provide comprehensive, professional, timely, and cost-effective miner purchasing and hosting services to maximize your wealth!