Recently, the famously shuttered exchange Mt. Gox announced that it will return to its creditors in July 2024 the bitcoins that were frozen 10 years ago when the exchange went bankrupt due to a theft, that is, more than 140,000 BTC and BCH, of which bitcoin is currently worth $9 billion. When the Mt. Gox exchange collapsed in 2014, the price of Bitcoin was $320, which means that the investors who were forced to freeze their assets in this matter are now reaping a return on their investment of almost 200 times.
On the other side of the coin, the announcement caused quite a stir, and is even believed to have contributed to the Bitcoin crash at the end of June 2024 – after all, with the equivalent of 0.7% of the market’s liquidity back in the hands of investors after 10 years, a significant portion of them may want to sell immediately to secure their funds, which would put a lot of selling pressure on the market! This could put more selling pressure on the market.
In fact, could this event put so much selling pressure on the bitcoin market? Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, said that the expected sell-off of Mt. Gox bitcoins into the market will be lower than what the headlines imply because only 75 percent of the population will qualify for a quick payout and will have to accept a 10-percent shortfall in order to get their money back quickly. Bitcoin, and that 10% will go to the foundation handling the matter, whose members are not short-term arbitrageurs, meaning that, according to Alex Thorn’s analysis, there should only be 65,000 Bitcoins that will be distributed to individual investors.
Moreover, Bitcoin is known to be a long-term investment, with more than 50 percent of Bitcoin currently being held for the long term, so it’s not certain that the Bitcoins that were unfrozen by Mt. Gox will be sold quickly once they’re back in the hands of investors. Although the price is currently in a slump, with network-wide power down to pre-December 2022 levels, the liquidity market is less active, and holders, including miners, are less inclined to sell their bitcoins at the moment, these circumstances suggest that the price is likely to have hit a low point and is about to rebound.
Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital, also said it’s easy to see from past history that even during bull markets, bitcoin falls 4 to 5 times a year, with declines of 20 to 30%, so the current downturn is nothing to worry about, and what cryptocurrency investors really need is patience, waiting for the latest round of weakness to “resolve itself.”
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Finally, BITMARS would like to remind everyone that all investments carry risks, so decisions should be made cautiously.
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